On March 13, the United States threatened to hit Syrian government troops in a Damascus village. On March 14, the Russian Ministry of Defense said it would act in response if the lives of Russian military personnel were at risk.
Regarding the actual failure of diplomatic efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis, the threat of direct armed conflict between Russia and the United States is becoming increasingly real.
By modeling a possible armed conflict between the Armed Forces of the countries involved, we can confidently say that it will begin with a series of provocative actions. Possibilities include air strikes by "unknown aircraft" on civilians, the use of chemical weapons, destruction of humanitarian convoys, "shooting" on military aircraft or ships of coalition forces, and perhaps even their complete destruction. The United States and Western countries will undoubtedly blame the Syrian or Russian military for any such actions in this regard.
In addition, bypassing all international organizations and their resolutions, some “group of friends of Syria” will announce a decision to create a treeless zone over Syria to “ensure the safety of the civilian population” as part of the US “R2P - Responsibility for Protecting Strategy.” After a repeated provocative episode, for example, with the use of chemical weapons, the start of a full-scale military operation against the “criminal regime and its ally” will be announced.
If the decision is made to fully implement this power projection scenario, the first strike will target the air defense systems and control centers of the Syrian army. The United States will demonstrate its strength and willingness to take extreme measures to compensate the Assad regime. In this scenario, the anti-media campaign promoted "universal evil" in order to improve the United States' reputation on the world stage. This strike will be launched with cruise missiles at the most vulnerable targets, which will be located in areas with weak air defense systems. The strikes will be carried out from a safe distance of 500 km from the main targets. In this case, the Mediterranean naval group in the Mediterranean Sea will move out of the range of the X-35 (range up to 200 km) and Onyx (SS-N-26 Strobile, range up to 300 km) anti-ship missiles. The Syrian army will not be able to retaliate on its own, and Russia may make significant concessions in the negotiation process. This could free the United States from having to undertake larger, more expensive operations.
However, Russia will most likely act from a position of strength. By classifying the death of several groups of Russian military advisers in Syrian target areas as an act of aggression, Russia can directly or indirectly carry out a number of different military operations. In particular, several American ships in the American Mediterranean fleet could be destroyed by stealthy Project 636 Warsaw diesel-electric submarines. In addition, American warships can attack Tu-160 strategic bombers. Or US warships, aircraft and ground forces and installations in the Middle East that have been involved in aggression could attack Russian missile, artillery and air defense systems from Syrian territory and on behalf of the Syrian Arab Army. Any such direct or indirect operations will also constitute an act of aggression by the US. Thus, they will move to a scenario of a massive attack by the forces of two fleets
In total, this strike can be carried out by more than 1,500 cruise missiles. There are currently 4 US Navy destroyers deployed in the Mediterranean Sea - USS Ross (DDG-71), USS Carney (DDG 64), USS Donald Cook (DDG 75) and USS Porter (DDG 78). Each is equipped with multiple vertical launch systems with at least 90 launch cells, each of which can be loaded with anti-submarine, anti-aircraft or cruise missiles. When strikes are carried out on ground targets, each cell can be loaded with a BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missile. The maritime battle group will be shadowed by one Ohio nuclear unit with more than 150 cruise missiles on board.
The US 5th Fleet has another powerful group of warships that could be deployed to the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Currently, in addition to the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), it consists of four guided missile destroyers USS Nitze (DDG 94), USS Roosevelt (DDG 80), USS Stout (DDG 55), USS Mason (DDG 87) and two missile cruisers (USS San Jacinto (CG 56), USS Monterey (CG 61). This naval group is reinforced by two guided missile submarines.
The targets of the massive strike will be ships of the Russian Mediterranean fleet, command centers, airfields, air defense and electronic warfare systems. The United States and its allies resort to the force scenario only if they can achieve overwhelming superiority over their declared adversary. Despite the deployment of Pantsir-S1 (SA-22 Greyhound), S-300 (SA-10 Grumble) and S-400 (SA-21 Growler) air defense systems, as well as maritime air defense systems, command and control systems army, as well as the air defense systems of Russia and Syria, will suffer irreparable damage in the event of a large-scale attack by cruise missiles from a safe distance.
According to military experts, to guarantee the destruction of one Russian air defense complex, about 10 missile launches are required in conditions of return fire by air defense systems. According to some estimates, throughout Syria there are approximately 200 air defense systems on constant combat readiness. However, the destruction of primary radars can be done by “blind” defensive launchers. The only trump card in this scenario may be Russia's top-secret electronic warfare systems, which could theoretically disorient enemy cruise missiles as well as naval vessels. If this does not happen, it is unlikely that Russia will respond with conventional weapons. One hour of operation may be enough to eliminate the threat to the United States and its air force allies.
In this situation, Russia will be faced with a choice: abandon Syria, leave it at the mercy of the warring factions, or respond with a tactical nuclear attack. The US calculations will be based on the assumption that Russia would not dare to take such a step in this situation. According to I.27 of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, by 2014, “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened." In this case, the United States and its allies are not using nuclear weapons and are not specifically posing an existential threat to the Russian state.
Meanwhile, taking into account the approximate flight time of cruise missiles to the target (approximately 40 minutes at missile speeds of up to 880 km/h and a distance to the target of 500 km), the Russian military and political leadership will have enough time to assess the scale of the attack and resort to a predetermined response plan. The main Russian counterstrike will be carried out on elements of the missile defense system in Europe. At the same time, the concentrated forces of the 5th and 6th fleets will be completely destroyed by X-102 missiles from Tu-160 bombers. The United States and its allies, in turn, will try to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike on the territory of the Russian Federation. Thus, the final step will be a strategic nuclear exchange.
However, given the more likely scenario associated with maintaining military parity in the region, the parties can continue negotiations, gradually developing successes on different fronts. After capturing Mosul and Raqqa, US coalition forces will try to gain control of as much of the Syrian landscape as possible. After capturing Aleppo, Russia will also move to the center of the country. Thus, Syria will be divided into spheres of influence similar to post-war Germany. Then the parties will begin long-term political negotiations to form a government of national unity and resolve the status of Kurdish autonomy. Regardless of how the situation turns out, Russia will continue to ensure that a loyal government that is representative of the Syrian people comes to power, and will also be a loyal ally, and thus maintain a Russian naval base in Syria. Donald Trump's recent victory in the US presidential election has likely contributed to this peaceful scenario. Experts expect that with Trump in the White House, the main players in the region - Russia and the United States - will have a better chance of reaching a deal to divide spheres of influence
Last updated: 09.25.2015 at 19:24
© AP Photo/Jaber al-Helo
How did the internal armed conflict begin, the settlement of which involved the whole world.
Anti-government protests in Syria began in March 2011, becoming a continuation of the so-called “Arab Spring” - a series of revolutions that swept the Middle East. Very quickly, the situation in Syria escalated into a civil war, and subsequently the territory of the country became vulnerable to various terrorist groups fueled from outside. In 2013, the headquarters of the terrorist group “Islamic State” (IS) appeared in northern Syria.
Some non-regional players must answer the question of who poses the greater threat: Assad or the Islamic State
Sergey Lavrov
Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry
“Islamic State” and “Jabhat al-Nusra” are recognized as terrorist organizations in the Russian Federation.
If in June 2014 the Syrian army controlled 12 of 14 provinces, or 70% of the territory, then in the spring of 2015 it suffered major defeats in the north of the country. In March, government troops lost control over the city of Idlib, a major administrative center of the province of the same name, and in April - over the city of Jisr al-Shughur, opening the way to areas inhabited by Alawites - supporters of the ruling regime. In the south of the country, the Syrian army also failed to achieve success - the province of Deraa remains under the control of extremists. By June 2015, militants had captured almost half the country. The number of victims of the conflict since 2011 has amounted to 210 thousand people, more than 840 thousand were injured. The number of Syrian refugees in the world reached 3.3 million by the end of 2014.
According to a joint report by the Syrian Center for Policy Research and the United Nations Development Program dated March 19, 2015, the country's economic losses since the beginning of the conflict are estimated at $202 billion. In 2014 alone, the budget deficit increased by 40.5%. The unemployment rate in 2014 reached 57.7%. (14.9% in 2011). The rapid increase in prices for goods and services in 2014 was due to a reduction in government subsidies. Life expectancy in the country by 2015 decreased to 55.7 years (75.9 years in 2011). More than 30% of Syria's population lives in extreme poverty. 50.8% of school-age children did not attend educational institutions in 2014.
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) estimates that around 300 World Heritage sites have been destroyed or damaged as a result of the war in Syria.
2011
March 15th Anti-government protests began in Syria, which gradually spread to the country's major cities - Damascus, Latakia, Aleppo, Homs, Banias, Deraa. The demonstrators demanded democratic reforms, the lifting of the state of emergency that had been in force in the country since 1963, and the resignation of the country's President Bashar al-Assad.
April 22 Mass anti-government demonstrations took place in the cities of Damascus, Aleppo, Daraa, as well as in the provinces of Homs and Hama; the police used weapons and tear gas to disperse them. The death toll was 112 people. An armed confrontation began in the country between government troops and the opposition.
Syrian Arab Republic. Dossier
25th of April Government troops were brought into the suburbs of Damascus, into the cities of Daraa and Jebla, where opposition protests continued.
May 10 EU sanctions on Syria came into force, introduced after the suppression of unrest in the country that began in March. The sanctions included an embargo on arms supplies to Syria, a ban on members of the Syrian government entering the EU, and their assets in EU countries were frozen.
July 31 Syrian government troops launched an offensive on the city of Hama to suppress large-scale anti-government protests that lasted throughout the month. According to Al Jazeera TV, 113 people were killed in Hama that day.
August 4 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad approved decree on the introduction of a multi-party system in the country and on the organization of general elections.
8 September Army units were brought into the city of Homs to suppress the armed rebellion that had lasted for several months.
2 October in the Stambul The opposition Syrian National Council was created , which included political emigrants, including members of the Muslim Brotherhood organization banned in Syria.
The adoption by the UN Security Council of a European draft resolution on Syria would lead to further escalation of confrontation and the ignition of a civil war in this country. The draft was voted on against the backdrop of statements by Western leaders that they no longer consider the government of Bashar al-Assad legitimate and call on the opposition to refuse dialogue with the Syrian government.
Vitaly Churkin
Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN
October 5 at a UN Security Council meeting Russia and China vetoed on a draft resolution threatening Syria with sanctions if the authorities do not stop suppressing opposition protests.
November 12 In Cairo, at an emergency meeting of the League of Arab States (LAS), a decision was made to suspend Syria's membership in the Arab League from November 16.
year 2012
January 23 In Cairo, at a meeting of the heads of the Arab League Foreign Ministry, a plan was adopted to resolve the crisis in Syria, providing for the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian authorities rejected this proposal as “contrary to the interests of the Syrian people.”
February 4 Russia and China again blocked the adoption of a resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council , which provides for the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power and places full responsibility for the bloodshed in the country on the Syrian authorities.
12th of February In Cairo, at an emergency meeting of the Council of the Arab League Foreign Ministry, a decision was made to “sever all diplomatic relations” with the Syrian administration.
February 22 took place in Tunisia first meeting of member states of the Group of Friends of Syria, an informal unification of countries supporting the Syrian opposition.
Russia has received an invitation to a meeting of the “Group of Friends of Syria” on February 24 in Tunisia, but has a number of questions about the event. We noticed that representatives of the Syrian government did not receive an invitation to the event. We proceed from the fact that resolving the situation requires the participation of the international community, in particular the UN and the Security Council, as well as key players. And this must be done on a mutually acceptable basis, and not impose decisions.
Gennady Gatilov
Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry
24 February Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has been appointed special representative of the UN and Arab League for resolving the Syrian conflict.
February 26 The referendum adopted a new constitution for Syria, which came into force on February 28.
10th of March In Cairo, a joint statement was adopted by the Arab League and Russia on the principles for resolving the Syrian crisis.
14th of April The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2042, authorizing the dispatch of an advance group of up to 30 unarmed military observers to Syria.
April 21 The UN Security Council adopted resolution 2043, developed on the basis of the Russian draft, establishing for a period of 90 days UN Observation Mission for a ceasefire in Syria.
May 7 took place in Syria first elections to the People's Council (Parliament) on a multi-party basis in accordance with the new constitution. The victory was won by the National Unity bloc, which supports President Bashar al-Assad.
May 25 In the village of Al-Khoula near the city of Homs, more than 100 people were killed as a result of shelling, according to Reuters. The Syrian authorities and the opposition mutually accused each other of committing this action.
First of all, we cannot agree with the unilaterally submitted conclusions of the Independent Commission of Inquiry in Syria regarding the tragedy in Al-Houla. Who is really to blame for this massacre remains to be seen. It is also unacceptable that this incident is artificially highlighted against the backdrop of ignoring other similar crimes in the country, which are behind terrorists and bandits
statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
May 29 a number of states, including seven EU countries, as well as the USA, Canada, Australia and Japan announced expulsion of Syrian ambassadors in connection with the tragedy in Al Howl.
June 5 Damascus announced the expulsion of the heads of diplomatic missions of a number of Western states.
June 16 The UN mission in Syria suspended its activities due to the escalation of the conflict in the country.
30 June in Geneva at a meeting of the action group on Syria, created on the initiative of the UN and the Arab League, the heads of the foreign ministries of five countries - permanent members of the UN Security Council agreed on the need to form a transitional government in Damascus. The final statement does not contain a provision in which Bashar al-Assad’s renunciation of power would be put forward as an indispensable condition for launching a political transition process in Syria.
July 18 Several people were killed in an explosion in Damascus key figures in the leadership of Syria - Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, his deputy for security affairs, the president's brother-in-law Assef Shaukat, and head of the Supreme Anti-Crisis Committee Hassan Turmani.
Family of the Syrian President. Family tree of the family of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
July 19 Russia and China in the UN Security Council vetoed for the third time on the draft resolution on Syria, which provided for the possibility of applying sanctions against Damascus.
July 24 Syrian armed forces For the first time in 17 months of fighting with the opposition, aviation was used: Syrian Air Force planes attacked Aleppo.
From August 1 military operations are becoming increasingly widespread and cover almost all parts of the country - Damascus, Aleppo, Baniyas, Latakia, Idlib, Homs, Hama, Deir ez-Zor and Daraa.
August 17 Instead of Kofi Annan, the UN and Arab League special envoy for the Syrian settlement was Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi was appointed.
October 3 In the border town of Akcakale (Turkey), five people were killed when a Syrian shell hit a residential building. In response, the Turkish military fired at the positions of the Syrian army.
11th of November in Doha (Qatar) was The National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces was created (NCORS), which included the Syrian National Council and other opposition groups.
In mid-December, there were violent clashes between government forces and militants on the southern outskirts of Damascus.
year 2013
6th January President Bashar al-Assad spoke with a peace plan .
January 15 A rocket attack on a university in Aleppo killed 87 people. The extremist group Jabhat al-Nusra claimed responsibility for the attack.
February 21 In Damascus, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb near the headquarters of the ruling Baath Party. 53 people died.
March 19 in the Khan al-Asal area in Aleppo province in battles chemical weapons used , 25 people were killed, including 16 Syrian army soldiers. Authorities blamed the use of poisonous gases on militants.
CHRONICLE: On the issue of the use of chemical weapons in Syria
21 March UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon decided to send a group of independent experts to Syria to investigate reports of chemical attack .
March 26-27 at the Arab League summit in Doha (Qatar) NKORS officially received the seat of Syria in this organization.
May 3 and 5, according to the Syrian agency SANA, Israeli air force carried out strikes for objects in the suburbs of Damascus. Weapons depots and a military research center in Dzhemrai were attacked. According to the Damas Post Internet portal, 300 military personnel became victims of the raid.
May 7 at negotiations in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry agreed to hold an international conference in Syria, which later became known as Geneva 2.
May 15 The UN General Assembly approved a resolution on Syria prepared by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, strongly condemning the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. 12 countries, including Russia, spoke out against it.
May 21st Syrian army with the support of the Lebanese organization Hezbollah , which had not previously intervened in the Syrian conflict, occupied the city of El-Quseir on the border with Lebanon, which had been in the hands of militants for more than a year.
May 28 The EU has made a decision do not extend the arms embargo Syrian opposition.
This is an illegitimate decision in principle; discussing seriously at the official level the topic of the supply or non-supply of weapons to non-state actors is contrary to all norms of international law
Sergey Lavrov
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
the 9th of June The Syrian command launched Operation Northern Storm to liberate the city of Aleppo and its environs from armed extremists.
22nd of June In Doha, at a meeting of the group of friends of Syria, a decision was made to supply weapons to the Syrian opposition.
July 31 In the northeast of the country, Syrian Kurds announced general mobilization, and clashes between Kurdish troops and Islamist groups began.
August 21 Western and Arab TV channels reported the use of chemical weapons in the Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta . As a result of shelling with sarin nerve gas, according to various sources, from 280 to 1,700 people were killed. In turn, the Syrian authorities denied this information, saying that the data “was fabricated” by the opposition.
August, 26th UN experts took samples from the site of a suspected chemical attack near Damascus.
August 29 at a meeting of permanent members of the UN Security Council when discussing a draft resolution opening the way for strikes on Syria, Russia and China opposed the use of force.
10 September Syria agreed place its chemical weapons stockpiles under international control , and then joined the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Russia's proposal on Syria: reaction from the world community
September 14 In Geneva, following negotiations between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry, a framework agreement was reached on the destruction of this type of weapon in Syria.
September 25 The 13 Syrian Islamist groups belonging to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the military wing of the NKRS, refused to recognize the NKRS as their representative and called on all opponents of President Bashar al-Assad to unite on the basis of Islam. The FSA began to conduct military operations not only against government troops, but also against Islamic militants.
October 14 Syria officially became the 190th member of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
October 26 22 armed Islamist groups that collaborate with the FSA announced a boycott of the planned Geneva 2 peace conference. Among them are the Liwa al-Tawhid and Ahrar al-Sham brigades associated with the banned Muslim Brotherhood association in the Syrian Arab Republic, as well as the more radical Grandsons of the Prophet, Jaysh al-Islam and Sahaba. The Islamists said they would treat as traitors and put on trial those who went to Geneva.
November 12 Syrian Kurds announced the creation of a transitional autonomous administration in the administrative center of Qamishli. This interim authority would govern three Kurdish-populated regions in the north and northeast of the country that have been liberated from militants.
15th of November executive council of the OPCW approved a detailed plan for the destruction of Syrian chemical arsenals . It is expected that all chemical weapons will be removed from Syria by February 5, 2014. The most dangerous chemicals will be destroyed outside the SAR no later than March 31, 2014, the rest - before June 30, 2014.
Destruction of Syrian chemical weapons
Chemical weapons will be destroyed on the American ship Cape Ray. Two mobile FDHS chemical weapons destruction units are mounted on the ship.
November 22 six Islamist militant groups in Syria have united into a single fighting structure called "Islamic Front". It included the Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiya, Tawhid Brigades, Army of Islam, Suqur al-Sham, Liwa al-Haq and Ansar al-Sham units. Saudi Arabia took over the financing and armament of this military structure. Mujahideen from the Islamic Front entered into a fight with both government troops and units of the Free Syrian Army.
December 2nd armed extremists attacked the monastery of St. Thekla Equal to the Apostles in the city of Maaloula (in western Syria) and took 16 nuns hostage, led by the abbess, Abbess Baladzhia (Pelageya). The monastery was desecrated and looted, in particular, the bronze monument “The Savior in Power,” which was opened in September 2008 and created by Russian sculptor Alexander Rukavishnikov, was destroyed.
December 7 Islamic Front militants captured the headquarters and military warehouses of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Idlib, the head of the FSA Supreme Military Council, Salim Idris, fled to Turkey, and from there to Doha (Qatar). By the end of December 2013, according to some sources, from 20 thousand to 40 thousand people remained in the ranks of the FSA.
December 11th Armed extremists from the Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic Front groups captured the industrial city of Adra, 40 km from Damascus, and massacred Druze and Alawite families there. More than 90 people, including women and children, became victims of ethnic cleansing.
December 30th During the fighting, Syrian troops freed 5 thousand residents of the city of Adra from captivity.
year 2014
In early January 2014, fierce fighting broke out between opposition groups. The Mujahideen Army and the Syrian Rebel Front came out against the militants of the al-Qaeda-linked extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), which established control over the border crossings with Turkey. In the provinces of Idlib and Latakia, militants from the Islamic Front and Jabhat al-Nusra are fighting against ISIS. The NCORS declared the Islamic State a terrorist group and its number two enemy after the Syrian regime.
13th of January ISIS militants executed about 100 members of other rebel groups. Nearly 500 people have been killed in a week of fighting between moderate opposition fighters and Islamic extremists in Syria.
On the same day took place the last of six meetings in the Russia-US-UN format, dedicated to preparations for the international conference “Geneva-2”. Following its results, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern about the delay in the response of the Syrian opposition to participate in the upcoming negotiations.
January 17 Sergei Lavrov held talks in Moscow with his Syrian counterpart Walid Muallem, who confirmed the intention of the SAR government delegation to participate in the conference.
January 22 An international conference on the Syrian settlement began in Montreux, Switzerland. Its participants included representatives of the government and opposition of this Arab country, as well as international mediators. The forum, which took eight months to prepare, confirmed the differences in the approaches of its participants to resolving the Syrian conflict.
“We can't expect an immediate breakthrough. Nobody denies the difficulties. Here in Montreux we have only taken the first small step. The real difficult work begins on Friday,” said UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Following the meeting in Montreux, it was announced that the dialogue between the delegations of the Syrian government and the opposition, as scheduled, would begin on January 24 in Geneva.
January 24 In Geneva, separate meetings were held between the joint special representative of the UN and Arab League for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, with delegations of the Syrian government and opposition. The diplomat called the negotiations with both sides encouraging.
The 25th of January The first meeting between the Syrian government and opposition delegations since the start of the peace process took place. Representatives of the delegations did not shake hands and did not sit at the round table.
January 27 In the mountainous towns of Zabadani and Madai, the first local truce agreements were concluded between government forces and militant groups.
28 January Damascus regarded US decisions to supply weapons to opposition groups as a direct attempt to impede the success of Geneva 2. The continuation of inter-Syrian negotiations was postponed to January 29 due to disagreements between delegations.
January 29 The National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (NCORF) of Syria announced progress at inter-Syrian negotiations in Geneva in connection with the start of conversations about the creation of a transitional government.
January 30 First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Syria Faisal Mekdad said that official Damascus is disappointed with the first stage of the dialogue within the framework of Geneva 2. Nevertheless, the diplomat confirmed that the government delegation will come for the next round of negotiations.
January 31 The first round of inter-Syrian negotiations in Geneva ended without concrete agreements. The joint representative of the UN and Arab League for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, said that the second round of dialogue will begin on February 10.
“Geneva-2”: negotiations turned out to be more necessary for mediators
He clarified that the opposition agreed to this date, and the government delegation stated that it wanted to consult with Damascus. “Progress in the inter-Syrian negotiations is very slow, but the process has begun,” concluded the special representative of the UN and Arab League.
February 4 The leader of the National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (NCORF) of Syria, Ahmed al-Jarba, met in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Following the results of these consultations, the Russian minister stated that Moscow considers the participation of the National Coalition in inter-Syrian negotiations as a choice in favor of a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
February 7 In accordance with the agreement reached between the Syrian government and the opposition, the evacuation of civilians from the city of Homs and the delivery of humanitarian aid to this locality began. Earlier, four UN vehicles proceeded to militant-controlled areas of the city, followed by a convoy of buses.
Evacuation of civilians begins from Syrian Homs
February 10-15 The second round of inter-Syrian negotiations took place within the framework of Geneva 2. The government delegation and the opposition did not reach an understanding. Nevertheless, as a result of the negotiations, a truce was concluded, which made it possible to deliver food and medicine to the residents of the city of Homs, which had been besieged for two years.
February 22 The UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2139, which requires the Syrian authorities to open the borders to establish direct supplies of humanitarian aid to the affected areas of the country.
March 13 Deputies of the People's Council approved the draft law on presidential elections on an alternative basis.
18th of March Washington demanded that Damascus immediately suspend the work of Syrian diplomatic missions in the United States.
April 28 President Bashar al-Assad announced his candidacy for participation in the presidential elections on June 3, 2014.
5 May The Supreme Constitutional Court allowed 3 candidates out of 24 who submitted registration documents to participate in the elections.
May 7 The presidential election campaign has officially begun. On the same day, an agreement on a ceasefire in the city of Homs, the removal of militants from this locality and the exchange of prisoners came into force.
May 28-29 early elections were held among Syrians living abroad (over 200 thousand people). Voting took place in 38 embassies of the republic in other states.
May 29 The European Union has extended the regime of economic sanctions against Syria until June 1, 2015. Restrictive measures include an embargo on oil exports, as well as a ban on investment, financial and transport transactions for EU countries.
June 3 In the first alternative presidential elections, which took place in territories liberated by the government army from militants, incumbent President Bashar al-Assad won, gaining 88.7% of the votes.
During the election campaign, carried out under the slogan “Together!”, Bashar al-Assad promised to hold an amnesty, cleanse the country of militants and help restore the country’s economy. On June 16 he took the oath.
One of Assad’s first decisions was to sign a decree on amnesty, which applied to crimes committed before June 2014. Until November 2014, a record number of opponents of the regime were amnestied in the country - 11 thousand people. Other election promises remained unfulfilled
June 20 UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon proposed a six-point plan for resolving the conflict in Syria, which included an end to violence and the introduction of an arms embargo. Russia did not support the idea of an embargo due to the lack of guarantees of its application against non-governmental armed groups.
27th of June The national coalition of opposition and revolutionary forces dissolved the military council of the Free Syrian Army and began an investigation into its corruption activities.
July 7 On board the specialized American vessel CapeRay in the Mediterranean Sea, the process of destroying chemical weapons exported from Syria began.
July 16 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took the oath of office as head of state for a third seven-year term. After the inauguration ceremony, armed opposition fighters fired mortars at the business center of Damascus.
July 16-17 About 2 thousand militants from the Islamic State (IS) organization attacked checkpoints on the approaches to the gas wells of the al-Shaerk field east of the city of Homs. The victims of the massacre were 270 military personnel, workers and engineers guarding this strategic facility. The field is captured by militants.
July 17th IS militants established control over the eastern province of Deir ez-Zor, bordering Iraq. In the north of the country, IS attacked the Kurdish region of Kobani on the border with Turkey.
By July 19 All the main oil fields in eastern Syria were in the hands of IS. Syrian troops began an operation to liberate the captured al-Shaer gas field.
July 22 The EU Council decided to extend sanctions to three more individuals and nine entities for involvement in the brutal crackdown on civilians or support for the Syrian authorities.
July 28th The UN Security Council, at the initiative of the Russian Federation, adopted a statement on the inadmissibility of purchasing oil from terrorist organizations operating in Syria and Iraq.
August 5-7 Damascus came under heavy fire from armed opposition forces. 19 people were killed and at least 75 were injured, including 13 children.
Terrorist organization "Islamic State". Dossier
13 August USA completed the destruction of the most dangerous chemicals from Syria on board the CapeRay.
15 August UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2170, which provides for the imposition of sanctions against six individuals associated with the activities of the IS and Jabhat al-Nusra groups. During the period from August 1 to August 15, 2014, IS militants executed about 700 people in eastern Syria.
August 16-18 The Syrian Air Force carried out more than 20 missile attacks on ISIS bases near the cities of Aleppo and Raqqa, as a result of which 30 militants were killed.
August 19 The United States said that the process of disposing of Syria's declared arsenal of chemical weapons has been completed.
August, 26th US President Barack Obama allowed American intelligence agencies to carry out reconnaissance flights over Syria.
August 28 The composition of the government was announced in Damascus. WeilNader al-Khalki retained the post of prime minister. The main factions of the internal opposition in Syria have refused to participate in the government.
August 28 Jabhat al-Nusra militants detained a group of 45 UN peacekeepers in the Golan Heights. They were released on August 31.
August 29 Syrian troops killed 255 armed opposition militants during a large-scale operation in the Jubar area in eastern Damascus.
September 5 At the NATO summit, US President Barack Obama presented a plan to create an international coalition against IS militants.
September 15th UN peacekeepers were withdrawn from the Syrian part of the Golan Heights due to the advance of armed groups on their positions.
September 17 Jabhat al-Nusra militants occupied almost the entire demilitarized zone on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights after the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers from there.
September 19 Turkey began accepting Syrian refugees from battle zones with the Islamic State; within 24 hours, about 70 thousand Syrians crossed the border. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu ordered security forces to accept all Syrian citizens in need of shelter.
September 20 US President Barack Obama signed a law previously passed by Congress allowing the US military to train and supply fighters of the moderate Syrian opposition, including the Free Syrian Army, in order to fight the Islamic State.
23 September The air forces of the countries of the international coalition led by the United States carried out the first airstrikes on the positions of Islamists from the IS and Jabhat al-Nusra groups in Syria. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain and Qatar became US allies in this operation.
September 26 The international consulting company Deloitte presented the results of an audit to the NKORS, according to which the pro-Western opposition is stealing funds allocated for humanitarian needs.
October 1 In Homs, a double terrorist attack occurred near schools, killing about 50 people, most of whom were children.
The 20th of October The EU blacklisted 16 more Syrian officials and businessmen, including 11 ministers, banning them from entering the EU and freezing their financial assets. The number of individuals on the EU blacklist for Syria has reached 211, and it also includes 63 companies.
October 30 The UN Secretary-General's special representative for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, announced plans to create a new “group of friends” to resolve the conflict in the country. In addition, he put forward an initiative to “freeze military operations” in Aleppo, where the western part of the city was under the protection of the Syrian army, and the eastern part was controlled by militants from more than 20 armed formations.
November 6 Syria's permanent representative to the UN, Bashar Jaafari, said that IS militants fired chemical shells at the city of Kobani.
November 19 The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution presented by Saudi Arabia that places primary responsibility for the gross human rights violations committed in Syria on Damascus. Russia did not support this document.
29th of November Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said that the government supports the idea of achieving a local truce in Aleppo.
December 1 The UN World Food Program announced the suspension of assistance to Syrian refugees due to funding problems. After 8 days, assistance was resumed thanks to an extensive information campaign, including on social networks.
December 6 Staffan de Mistura discussed in Turkey the possibility of ending hostilities in Aleppo with representatives of the Syrian opposition, including the leader of the NKORS, Hadi al-Bahra.
December 7 In Istanbul, the special representative of the Russian President for the Middle East and African countries, Mikhail Bogdanov, met with the leader of the NKORS. During the conversation, the need to quickly transfer the Syrian crisis into the mainstream of a political settlement was noted.
12 December The EU Council has introduced a ban on the supply of aviation fuel to Syria from EU countries.
December 15 The EU Council announced that the sanctions imposed against Syria will remain in full until the repression in the country stops. The EU also supported Staffan de Mistura's plan to create ceasefire zones.
December 17 In the Sheikh Najar industrial zone in Aleppo, liberated by the Syrian army, about 300 enterprises have resumed operations.
On the same day, members of the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution authorizing the continuation of direct supplies of humanitarian aid to Syria over the next 12 months without obtaining the prior consent of Damascus.
27th of December National Coordination Committee (NCC) spokesman Munzir Khaddam said that internal Syrian opposition factions agree to enter into negotiations scheduled for January 26 with the government delegation in Moscow “without preconditions.”
On December 28, the leading groups of internal and external opposition - the National Coordination Committee (NCC) and the NCORS - reached an understanding on the main points of the road map for a peaceful exit from the crisis.
2015
In January 2015 The process of destroying chemical weapons production and storage facilities in Syria has begun.
5 January Kurdish Self-Defense Forces (KSF) ousted IS militants from their captured positions in the center of Kobani. The militia completely cleared the administrative quarter of the city of Mujahideen. A KSS representative said that less than 20% of the city remains under the control of IS militants.
6th January Pentagon press secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby said that US troops will begin training the Syrian moderate opposition to fight ISIS in early spring.
January 9 In Syria, fighters of the National Defense Forces killed over 70 armed extremists from the Jabhat al-Nusra group on the approaches to the two Shiite cities of Ez-Zahra and Nobul, 30 km north of Aleppo. The siege of Ez-Zahra and Nobul lasts for about two years.
January 26 The first consultations of representatives of Syrian opposition groups took place in Moscow, which were later joined by a delegation of the Syrian government. The purpose of the meetings is to find ways to resolve the conflict that has been ongoing since 2011.
April 6 The second inter-Syrian consultations were held in Moscow. As a result, a document was developed called the “Moscow Platform”.
May 21st Ancient Palmyra, recognized by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site and located 240 km from Damascus, was captured by IS after heavy fighting with Syrian government forces. Experts suggest that after the capture of Palmyra, the area of territory currently occupied by the Islamic State terrorist group in Iraq and Syria is about 300 thousand square kilometers.
The attack on Syria by “smart and beautiful” missiles from the United States, Great Britain and France has become the main event in international politics in recent weeks.
Immediately after the attack, the editors of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper asked me to comment on what was happening. But events are developing further and against the backdrop of French President Macron’s visit to the United States, I would like to add a few more strokes to the already drawn picture.
The United States has no intention of leaving Syria. They are going to talk about leaving, as is happening with their troops in Afghanistan. Still Obama "", but they are still there.
The French will be used as those who will pull chestnuts from the fire. Let me remind you that from 1919 to 1946 Syria was a territory mandated by Paris, which actually meant its colonial status.
The colonialists are returning, but not under the guise of bearing the “human burden,” but under the guise of fighting the “bloody regime.”
During Macron's visit to Washington, Donald Trump did very strange things with the French president, from the point of view of diplomatic etiquette. He led Macron by the hand, he brushed away (blowed away) specks of dust (dandruff) from him. With his behavior, Donald Trump sent several signals at once:
- Macron (France) was appointed “Chief of Europe”. This is why he is a globalist.
- in Syria, the Americans will act with the hands of the “old masters” - the French. This will only further confuse and complicate the situation in the Middle East, which, in fact, is what Washington needs. From the beginning of the expansion of influence, the Americans promised Erdogan territory, and with his help and assistance they began to destroy Syria. Then they tried to ditch him and even physically eliminate him, carrying out an attempted coup. Washington went on to pledge support for the Kurdish independence quest, infuriating Ankara. Now Trump wants to squeeze France into the framework of the Middle East conflict, which will inevitably cause a violent reaction not only from Arab states, but also from Turkey itself. Every step of the Americans does not weaken, but increases tension in the Middle East. Roughly speaking, they promised several players the same tidbit at once, trying to cause maximum confrontation and negativity between them.
- By dragging the French President by the hand like a small child, Trump publicly demonstrates not only his “sympathy and affection”, but also shows the weakness and subordination of France to the whole world. Do you doubt this? Then imagine that Donald Trump took Putin by the hand and began to lead him around the White House. Can you imagine this? Will Putin obediently and contentedly follow the US President? Of course not.
Naked Coalition
The enemies of Syria must be beaten with a Russian passportI risk finding myself alone in believing that Saturday’s raid by the US-led coalition on Syrian targets will not have any geopolitical consequences.
This is just another bombing, just another violation of international law. An ordinary episode in the long and difficult struggle of the Americans to maintain their dominance in the world. They, as best they can, are trying to prove to everyone else one simple truth: we, Americans, are the only center of power, we can do whatever we want, and no one will be able to protect you from us. Even the presence of Russian troops in Syria will in no way protect either itself or Bashar al-Assad personally - America will continue to do what it wants.
This message is vital for the United States. When attempts to destroy Syria encountered opposition from both Russia and the Arab Republic itself, this largely undermined the authority of the Americans in the world. They began to lose face, and in their situation this is the worst thing. If someone is able to resist their dictate, their pressure, then maybe the king is naked? And today the main task of the United States is to prevent the world from becoming convinced of this opinion. It doesn’t matter to them whether they make the right decision or not, they will push it through at any cost and at the same time try to ensure that it is not the Americans who lose face in Syria, but the Russians.
The fact that they were now acting in a coalition is not surprising - the USA and Great Britain have long been one little gang. They never have disagreements in foreign policy, and I don’t even remember if they had any in the foreseeable past. With France it’s also simple: globalist circles, read – the United States, brought Macron to power so that the Fifth Republic would completely move in their wake, which it is successfully doing. They treated Germany quite interestingly, which today is in a weakened military state; it actually has neither a fleet nor an air force. Therefore, the Americans, it seems to me, simply allowed the Germans not to actively participate in this story, limiting themselves to only some approval. It is clear that the Germans themselves were not particularly keen to bomb Syria.
This begs the question: what should Russia do in such a situation? It is important to note here that Syria is only a certain point of application of forces in the confrontation between the strongest powers in the world. In the Middle East, we are not fighting the banned Islamic State or any other terrorists, but, first of all, the evil will of the United States and its satellites, which create, train, arm and set these terrorists against whomever they see fit. And the end result of Russia’s foreign policy should be the achievement of its own goals, and not stupid bruising of the forehead for any reason.
It makes no sense to enter into a full-fledged confrontation with the West when the balance of forces is unfavorable for us just to protect Syria. At one time, in 1914, we rushed to defend our Serb brothers, as a result of which they gained Yugoslavia, and we almost lost Russia. Therefore, one must be careful when choosing a response, especially a forceful one. But, let’s say, I wouldn’t be very surprised if a fairly powerful guerrilla movement arose on the territory of Syria, which would constantly attack the Americans and their allies stationed there, destroy their manpower, commit sabotage... Thus, it would constantly remind Washington that the Americans are in Syria is not welcome. Let's remember history: the United States withdrew its troops from those states where Americans began to be killed simply. And the more they killed, the faster the desire to liberate the territory arose. It is clear that Russia cannot have anything to do with the development of the partisan movement in Syria, but this does not exclude the possibility that it will arise there.
As I wrote in the post
“Everything is clear and clear - the USA is the master of ISIS, the game of “partners” ended as Syria was liberated from occupation by US terrorists”
But since things are called by their proper names, then relationships should be built accordingly. What kind of negotiations can there be with terrorists???
During the visit, the world's two largest oil producers will pay significant attention to energy policy issues. Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reach an agreement to cooperate on oil production, likely finalizing a $1 billion fund to invest in energy projects. Saudi Arabia, which is currently diversifying its economy, is particularly interested in outside investment.
But the two oil giants will most likely not limit themselves to business issues. Moscow has become an undeniable political force in the Middle East. “There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia highly values its relationship with Russia and considers it multifaceted in nature,” Fahad Nazer, a political consultant at the Saudi Embassy in Washington, said in a personal statement.
Of particular interest will be the changing realities in Syria, where Moscow supports the government of the country, and Saudi Arabia and the United States support the opposition. Just last year, Russia's support for President Bashar al-Assad and the influence of Iran and its proxy forces in Syria were the main points of contention with Saudi Arabia. But even in this case, the realities have changed.
“The Saudis generally accept that Assad will remain in power. But now they are hoping Russia will help them limit Iran's influence in Syria (and elsewhere), Mark Katz, a Russia specialist at the Schar School of Policy and Government, wrote in an email. George Mason University. “As an incentive, they will offer the prospect of trade with Saudi Arabia and investment. True, it is unclear whether Moscow can actually do much to limit Iranian influence in Syria. And if the Saudis think that Moscow cannot or will not do this, then trade and investment with Saudi Arabia will not come to fruition.”
What this means for the US is unclear. Salman's visit to Russia coincided with the escalation of tensions between Moscow and Washington. And while President Trump has embraced and warmed to Saudi Arabia and even made the country his first stop on his first overseas trip as U.S. leader, some analysts suggest Riyadh may be looking toward Russia due to uncertainty regarding what Washington's intentions are in the Middle East.
Will Saudi Arabia sacrifice its long relationship with the United States, forged years ago by President Franklin Roosevelt's meeting with the first Saudi king, for a new relationship with Putin's Russia?
King Salman's visit to Moscow ahead of talks with President Donald Trump in Washington scheduled for early next year marks Riyadh's recognition of the changing political balance in the Middle East. The balance of political power shifted after Putin successfully resisted half-hearted US efforts to topple Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
King Salman, who arrived on a four-day state visit on Wednesday, called Russia a “friendly” country. He told Putin, who accepted the king's invitation to visit Saudi Arabia, that their talks would strengthen the global economy as well as international stability and security.
ZY How the figures on the map of the Middle East are mixed up. Who, as a result, will put checkmate in such a difficult game??? The time for the end of the “game” is approaching.
Russia has completed the deployment of an air defense system in Syria that limits the operational capabilities of both the United States and Israel, according to a report from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. Based throughout the conflict-torn country, it includes variations of the advanced S-300 and S-400 systems in addition to a range of other modern technologies.
Moscow has long exported such systems to Syria, but they remain under the control of its own army. It was only after Syrian forces accidentally shot down a Russian surveillance plane in September—which the Kremlin blamed on Jerusalem, which had struck a nearby Iranian weapons depot minutes earlier—that President Vladimir Putin gave the green light to transfer the S-300 to the Assad regime.
This, according to many observers, has increased the likelihood of clashes not only because Syrian forces are now better equipped to counter Israeli and American military activity, but also because of the greater likelihood of unwanted incidents caused by human error or, just as likely, outright incompetence .
“The Russians had these systems in Syria before the spy plane crash, but they did not use them to prevent Israeli strikes. So the real problem is that they are at the disposal of batteries of Assad’s forces,” Brigadier General (retired – author’s note) Relik Shafir, one of the most distinguished commanders of the Israeli Air Force, who carried out the destruction mission in 1981, explained to the media nuclear reactor in Iraq. “This allows the Syrian army to attack missiles or aircraft while maintaining the ability to counter electronic warfare and overcome stealth technologies.” However, on Thursday news emerged of an alleged Israeli strike on Al-Kiswa, located south of the Syrian capital. Such strikes are becoming increasingly rare amid ongoing tensions with Moscow and the new strategic environment. For its part, the United States has about three thousand troops in Syria, supporting mainly Kurdish forces in the east.
President Donald Trump also twice ordered naval forces stationed in the Mediterranean to fire Tomahawk missiles at Syrian targets in response to Damascus' use of chemical weapons.
Accordingly, analysts believe that both Washington and Jerusalem retain offensive capabilities to circumvent the Russian shield.
“The important element is not the implementation of air defense, but the rules of engagement,” former chief of military intelligence AMAN Amos Yadlin, currently director of the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security Studies, argued in the media. — As long as Putin adheres to his policy of not attacking Israeli aircraft, the likelihood of a direct Israeli-Russian confrontation is very low. Moreover, Jerusalem never said it would attack Russian soldiers.”
Context
Al-Akhbar: Tel Aviv did not realize the power of Lavrov’s “death blow”
Al-Akhbar 11/10/2018Haaretz: Russia cannot stop Iranian activity in Syria
Haaretz 11/20/2018Haaretz: Russian protective umbrella has messed up Israel's cards
Haaretz 11/23/2018 “However, there are two issues on which Moscow is adamant, namely: Russian soldiers should not be killed during Israeli attacks on Iranian targets, and AMAN should not take action to overthrow the Assad regime. As long as this is the case, I believe the Russians will stick to their previous position - that the Iranians are building redundant and threatening military infrastructure, and therefore Israel has a right to deal with it." Indeed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to continue striking Iranian targets in Syria, and other officials have hinted that Jerusalem could, if absolutely necessary, destroy anti-missile batteries that may be manned by Russian soldiers.Environment Minister Ze'ev Elkin, who also co-chairs the Israeli-Russian intergovernmental commission, also hinted that the Syrian army lacks the technical means and skills to intelligently use Russian systems. He therefore warned that regime forces could accidentally or otherwise shoot down a military or commercial aircraft over Israeli territory, which in turn would "certainly" lead to a targeted response to the launch site.
“I really hope that there will be no Russian military specialists there,” Elkin emphasized.
“The main obstacle is not Russian technology, but actually the physical presence of Russian soldiers on the ground, because it is not in Israel’s interests to harm them,” the former commander of AMAN troops in Syria, and now a researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, shared with The Media Line Begin-Sadat Major General (retired - author's note) Gershon Hakohen.
“However, this is a serious obstacle to the decision-making process in Israel, which ultimately comes down to risk management analysis. If the benefit to Israel from destroying the target outweighs the cost of Russian casualties and the resulting diplomatic consequences, then it could be considered. “But there is no ‘predominance’ policy,” he concluded, “because the issue is so serious that it will be discussed on a case-by-case basis and decided by the Prime Minister.”
Before his recent resignation, former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman publicly rejected Moscow's demand that Jerusalem provide the Russian military with additional warning before undertaking missions in Syria. “We will not accept any restrictions on our freedom of action, and when it comes to national security, we will take action,” he said, seemingly reinforcing the notion that Russian personnel will not stand in the way of Israel's goals.
This neglect may be partly explained by growing evidence that Russia is not honoring a tacit agreement to prevent Iran-linked militants, including members of Hezbollah, from operating within 85 kilometers (50 miles) of the Israeli border. According to Arab media, Shiite forces occupy vast tracts of land in the southwest on which they are building training bases. It is well known that Iran is trying to hide its military presence near the border by disguising its soldiers and mercenaries in Syrian army uniforms.
When considering the full range of potential consequences of this new reality, it is reasonable to postulate that in order for Israel to maintain intact its red lines—that is, to prevent Tehran from establishing a permanent military foothold in Syria and from supplying sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon—to the Jewish state, Russia will probably have to be challenged diplomatically, and perhaps militarily.
“Even so, Israel will not, under any circumstances, deliberately target Russian assets, as that would be a serious mistake,” Shafir, a former fighter pilot, told the media. “Israel still recognizes Moscow as a friendly power in the region and is interested in keeping it that way.”
“A problem could arise,” he said, “if Israel and Iran continue to pursue their [mutually exclusive] goals in Syria. After Russia's defensive actions, it will be difficult to keep their conflict discrete. It raises the stakes and things can flare up.” In this case, both Jerusalem and Moscow will almost certainly try to defuse the situation as quickly as possible - if circumstances permit, and unless either side decides that it is necessary to strengthen its position with actions that could have serious consequences.
InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.
